Tackling anti-social behaviour is good for business
Anti-social behaviour is often treated as an irritation rather than an economic problem. Major new research commissioned by the Office of the Police Chief Scientific Adviser should help change that.
The study, by Professor James Rockey of the University of Birmingham, Professor Jesse Matheson of the University of Sheffield and Dr Brendon McConnell of City St George’s, University of London, examines how crime affects business activity across neighbourhoods in England and Wales.
The research forms part of a wider programme examining policing and economic growth (opens external site) overseen by the Office of the Police Chief Scientific Adviser. Policing’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor Paul Taylor CBE, leads the national effort to strengthen the use of science and evidence across policing.
The researchers’ central finding is striking: a sustained 10% increase in neighbourhood crime is associated with a cumulative reduction in local business output of around 1%. For the average neighbourhood studied, that equates to around £600,000 of lost output each year.
The damage goes well beyond the immediate cost of stolen stock or a smashed window.
The report identifies several ways crime can harm businesses: direct losses and higher insurance costs; money diverted into security; investment that is delayed or abandoned because an area feels too risky; and businesses that close, relocate or are never opened in the first place.
Business survival is particularly important.
The researchers found that a business started in 2013 in a neighbourhood in the highest 10% for crime had only a 19% probability of surviving until 2023. In neighbourhoods in the lowest 10% for crime, the equivalent probability was 45%.
For anyone particularly concerned about anti-social behaviour, however, one finding stands out.
The report finds that the economic effect of anti-social behaviour is comparable with that of violent crime.
A 10% increase in anti-social behaviour per worker was associated with a 0.43% reduction in local Gross Value Added, compared with a 0.34% reduction associated with violent crime.
That is significant because the behaviour routinely dismissed as “low-level” can change how a place functions.
Graffiti, vandalism, harassment, intimidation and persistent disorder can discourage customers, make premises harder or more expensive to operate, and gradually undermine confidence in an area. The report itself concludes that the disorder produced by anti-social behaviour can be as economically damaging to businesses as more serious crime:
"One reason for this is that ASB may serve to deter customers, make the operation of business more difficult, or lead to frequent damage that is costly but hard to insure against"
It also describes the danger of a self-reinforcing “business desert”: businesses close or choose not to open, vacant premises attract further anti-social behaviour, perceptions of crime increase, and still more investment is discouraged.
The effects are not evenly spread. Businesses in rural areas and primary industries such as agriculture, fishing and related activities appear considerably more sensitive to local crime than the average firm.
There is a wider lesson here.
Tackling anti-social behaviour is not merely about making places look nicer or responding to individual complaints. It is part of creating the conditions in which local businesses can survive, invest, employ people and attract customers.
The report estimates a benefit-cost ratio of 10.7:1 for additional policing, meaning that each £1 invested could generate around £10.70 in economic benefits to business through the resulting reduction in crime.
Public safety and economic prosperity are closely connected.
That is why persistent anti-social behaviour should be recorded, evidenced and taken seriously. When residents and businesses report what is happening, they are not making a fuss about something trivial.
They are helping build the evidence needed to protect the shared spaces, confidence and economic life of their community.
References
Rockey, J., Matheson, J. and McConnell, B. (2026) The Economic Value of Policing to Businesses in England and Wales. Office of the Police Chief Scientific Adviser and National Police Chiefs’ Council. Available at: science.police.uk (opens external site) report PDF (opens external site) (Accessed: 11 September 2026).
